The euphoria and pageantry that greeted the announcement of Professor Ibrahim Agboola Gambari, an Ilorin Prince as the new Chief of Staff (CoS) to the President of Nigeria was not inevitable. Prof Gambari is a juggernaut and an exemplary, accomplished personality. The Ilorin born newly crowned CoS is a fine gentleman by all standards. He is a cerebral academic; International Diplomat of high repute, an astute and experienced Administrator and a foremost Political Scientist without any semblance or romance with being a politician. What is particularly outstanding about the personality of Prof. Gambari is that he has served in several Governments in Nigeria in various capacities both at home and abroad. His exploits at the international fora is equally unparalleled and pragmatically emphatic. Prof. Gambari in all ramifications can be equated in an exalted prominence in International diplomacy and International governing expertise especially with his various exploits with the United Nations assignments to what our celebrated Dr. Ngozi Okonjo Iweala is to the World Bank and international financial landscape. They are both highly prized professionals that have excelled both at the United Nations and World Bank respectively.
The Wikipedia succinctly captured the enviable resume of the juggernaut Professor of Political International Relations personified. It is simply an engraved accomplishment. When the rumor began in social media circles about his name being penciled down for the office of CoS, I personally chuckled and wondered why someone with such a high profile resume and accomplishments at the top level not only at domestic fora but also at the international level would be a fit for a job such as Chief of Staff (CoS). My understanding of the role of the CoS is that the occupant of that office generally tidies up the President’s desks and narrows the effectiveness of communications of the President’s daily deals to all Government arms, agencies and functionaries. There is no mention of the office of CoS in the Nigerian Constitution in the first instance. It may be hypotenuse to assume that CoS is simply an administrative assignment. It is the primary responsibility of the President to pick the right fit for such a job just as the President reserves the right to pick his residential personal aides.
It is equally instructive that the Nigerian Constitution clearly defined the role of the Secretary to the Federal Government extensively. It is also one of the high profile political offices in the land. The role of the Secretary to the Government is very crucial to the functioning of the Government and it is one office that carries significant political interest amongst the political class. The position of the CoS before this regime has been very taciturn in Nigeria generally. The two occasions when the CoS to the Presidents in Nigeria has become flamboyant and invocative was during the time of Major Almustapha the CoS to the then General Sani Abacha and just recently with President Buhari’s passed away Alhaji Abba Kyari. Both Almustapha and Alhaji Abba Kyari elevated the office into unprecedented puissance never known to the Nigerian political arena. I am inclined to believe that the circumstances pervading in which those two Nigerian Leaders may have resulted in allowing so much power being bequeathed on those two specific CoS are somewhat due to inevitable circumstances. Both Presidents are known to have developed unexpected health challenges that had mitigated their personal ability to function with agility in the running of Government while in office. Those circumstances left the two CoS in these instances to acquire a visibility larger than normal in their positions as the CoS . These are known facts and it may obviously resonate to instigate the reason why they are saddled by trusted bosses with some seemingly unconstitutional and high profile roles, assignments and tasks in relation to governance. Otherwise, the CoS position is generally considered less powerful and purely administrative when compared with that of the Secretary to the Federal Government which is a constitutionally guaranteed position.
There is absolutely no doubt that President Buhari has been battling with personal health issues which was very evident during the 2019 Campaign as this took considerable toll on him. He surely needs a solid, trusted and loyal confidant to enable him function effectively as the Commander in Chief and the President. This was indubitable when the Presidency late last year issued a rare administrative Executive Statement to the Ministers to refer directly to the CoS for any State business with the President. With this nature of truism, there is no way any individual in that office will not assume the position of dominance that Alhaji Abba Kyari was accused of arrogating to himself. It even got so bad that some sections of the Nigerian media and politicians believed that Alhaji Kyari was heading an acousmatic kitchen cabinet or mafia group inside Aso Rock. While there are no evidences to substantiate those beliefs, it must be stated that similar pretense pervades our State Governments’ administrative circles as well where the Governors cohort and imposed diehard loyalists in their respective Governments. It is a similar situation in virtually all the States in Nigeria with probably no exception.
This ultimately brings us to scrutinize the most referred qualification of our erudite Prof. Ibrahim Gambari in comparison to the position of the CoS. It may be appropriate to state categorically that based on the information presented in the previous paragraph herein, Prof. Gambari may be considered well over qualified for this CoS job. This is the reason why I chuckled upon the mentioning of his name in the social media. It is not certain why he would accept an assignment as a Chief of Staff for someone that has way back served diligently as a Deputy Secretary -General of the United Nations. Perhaps, the position of the Secretary to the Government will have resonated as an appropriate fit but CoS?
However, given the premise upon which the immediate past CoS operated as defined above, there was unquestioning the need for the President to ensure a similar highly trusted confidant and loyalist to the core professional is given this position to guide the Presidency and cabinet appropriately for the remainder of this administration. It was conspicuous that the President knew precisely what personality he needed for that office. At this time when things seem to be getting melancholic for the Country’s economic fortunes especially with the unprecedented challenges posed by the global damages from the Covid-19 crises, he needed a person that will definitely continue the line of loyalty exhibited by the late Alhaji Abba Kyari. He also needs a person with cognate experience with array of domestic and international background to assist him. What was probably on the President’s mind is that the new occupant will never be a known Politician and not necessarily a known card carrying Political Party member. The office of the CoS is measuredly not an office for any political hegemonist in the first place hence the last candidate the President may be considering is someone with Political linkage or affiliations.
Based on the above, I was able to simmer down my initial poignant about the over-qualification of Prof. Ibrahim Gambari for this assignment. The President made a right choice no doubt. Despite what people may have insinuated about this appointment, especially about his age, and past loyal exploits with previous regimes, he is an eminently qualified and appropriate choice to assist the President navigate this very difficult and challenging periods that the administration is confronted with. Prof. Ibrahim has highly applaud-able attributes that should give Nigerians peace of mind about his ability to perform his job. His is an upright personality, not tribalistic and never a card carrying toxic Party Politician. For those who knew him well and contemporaries, they are upbeat about his ability to excel in that position and assist the President solve several numerous economic and political challenges and insecurity in the land. Our treasury will be perfectly safe with someone of his caliber and he will surely help the President sustain the fight against the monster called corruption and mismanagement in Nigeria.
Now let us change the direction of our discussion to the priority agenda before our newly crowned CoS while he seats every day to brainstorm and as it is expected provide impetus into the thinking of the President. As an Economist, some of my readers will expect that I will commence enlisting the Agenda before the new CoS as being a focus on the Economy. No, Nigeria has enough juggernauts and knowledgeable personalities to assist solve the country’s economic challenges. Rather than start from that block, I will take the Agenda as follows based on my personal perceived prioritization.
1. Security in the Land: The new CoS should focus primarily on helping the President to confront the danger posed by the evident collapse of the Security apparatus in Nigeria. It is unfortunate that it has drifted into a situation that requires the declaration of Emergency on the security breakdown across the country leaving no region untouched. The President, despite being a former General in the Military and a past Commander -in -Chief has remained puzzled and harassed by almost complete breakdown in security in the Country. It is priority number one for the new CoS to assist the President with this situation, falling back on his past international exploits in negotiating and maintaining peace and security across the globe. As a highly intellectual personality, Prof. Gambari possesses what it takes to assist in arresting the spate of insecurity in Nigeria. The first thing we must understand is that there is nothing superfluous about the security challenges in Nigeria. It is homegrown and it can be solved with potent sincerity by the Government. The funds to prosecute a successful war against the security challenges are available and the personnel with right morale boosting are equally up to the task. We are living witnesses to the wanton waste and embezzlement of the Security Budgets under the last administration. No region of the world can record that level of recklessness and not be confronted with serious security problems. It is time to squarely confront this issue and the new CoS should take this as a priority to help the President in this direction.
While I will discuss the other component parts of the security issues in details later, it is noteworthy to mention that the other part of the physical battle against insecurity is the need to reduce or address the alarming spate of unemployment and poverty in Nigeria. A successful war against insecurity must be balanced with a resounding project to lift the teeming unemployed youths out of that pandemic and also reduce the poverty level across the board. These two must effectively be corroborated. It is going to be rough but it can be done with the right attitudes to succeed without infringing the democratic; civic liberty, right and freedom of the people.
2. The second most important priority for the new CoS should be the need to invest heavily in curbing mismanagement and perhaps intensify the efforts on the fight against corruption in Nigeria. Corruption and mismanagement of resources have created an indelible and untold burden on Nigeria. It has wrecked that country and is becoming insurmountable day by day. What Nigeria loses to mismanagement and corruption annually is unprecedented and unbelievable. The simple fix for this is equivocally in the armpit of the new CoS. He knows full well that what Nigeria needs is the creation and sustenance of strong institutions to support Political dispensations; to administer an entrenched National economic agenda for any Government irrespective of its political ideology; to create an unwavering permanent framework and technological infrastructure to eradicate mismanagement and corruption in all facets of the Nigeria political system.
Prof. Gambari again, undisputedly possesses the dexterity to pick up the phone and call any Leader on this planet on behalf of the President. He equally has what it takes to copy and obtain templates on how to assist create the much needed institutional infrastructures in Nigeria. The agenda is to create a legacy for this administration regarding tackling the visibly numerous challenges Nigeria is confronted with in its political sphere, economic front, in the area of prudent and transparent management of resources to curb corruption and eradicate wanton mismanagement of the country’s resources, which will not happen through the current adhoc measures that are not producing results in reducing corruption ; reduce perceived corruption in our judicial system; entrench the institution of accountability and transparent high-tech based financial system across the board and other areas that need such strong institutions. Perhaps the President may have to invoke these tough rules of engagement via Executive Orders which I am sure the new CoS will assist to doctor and navigate. He is an eminent former scholar with the prestigious Brooking Institutions in the US and other similar bodies around the world. He can obtain or copy templates with homegrown technical inputs to create these badly needed institutions in Nigeria.
3. The next priority agenda for the new CoS is the need to focus on assisting the President to deliver the dividends of democracy to the Nigerian populace. For more than 20 years of this current political dispensation, Nigerians are far worse in terms of standard of living and economic prosperity. The body language of the Politician is exhibiting a nonchalant posture. This subject does not seem to worry considerable number of our Political class. There is no evidence of any emergency invigoration within the rank and file of our Politicians to address the unacceptable drifting into poverty daily by Nigerians. The new CoS must use his experience and globally connected dragnet to help the President concentrate on projects that will increase HUMAN CAPITAL INDEX in Nigeria. This is where economic prosperity in the land can flourish and reduction if not eradication of poverty in the land begins. With a vibrant and economically empowered country, it is expected that this will definitely trickle-down to generate and create powerful consumption pattern, increase productivity and generate powerful market system that will see Small and Medium scale Enterprises blossom which will result in long term economic prosperity. As an Academician, Prof. Gambari knows full well that this goal cannot be achieved without a well laid out master plan of action to increase the education sector investment and budgets in the Country. I have often stated in the past that while it is true that Nigeria’s annual budget and investment in the education sector will never deliver the technological know-how we need in this 21st century, the fact is that Nigeria’s private sector investment in the education sector save for recent improvement is grossly inadequate.
The new CoS must use his knowledge base to assist the President create agenda for strong enabling environment to attract huge private sector investment into the education sector in Nigeria as a matter of priority. Again, the need to empower the population and increase human capital development must be matched with cognate investment in education. Education as defined here is not limited to Primary, Secondary or University education but huge investment in research based vocational education, experience based educational institutions focused on sciences, medical fields and high tech fields, and retraining facilities to enable our young and old hands to obtain job retraining that will allow them change and switch professions at will. Sometimes we wonder how Developed nations are able to sustain low levels of unemployment and are constantly worried about their unemployment numbers. The secret is that there are strategic investments in educational institutions and infrastructures that enable people to obtain retraining and education to switch professions at any time. It creates multiple levels of opportunities and it does allow the system to reboot frequently to accommodate changes in technologies and economic environments to address consumer needs and preferences. At this point, these types of specialized adults and Youth retraining and professional switching capacity training institutions do not exist in Nigeria. I am very certain Prof. Gambari knows this fully well and it will be instructive to admonish him to remain focused on this agenda. The need to create huge human capital regeneration in Nigeria is simply inevitable and must be a major agenda at this time.
4. For the umpteenth time, I will shy away from recommending an agenda that will focus on the Economic sector as a priority to the erudite Professor. In fact, that is not even something he should worry himself about. That department should be left and saddled with the respective appointed and elected managers to handle. Of course, the President will always expect his inputs to enable him navigate through this very precarious period of economic challenges for Nigeria but it is an area where I will personally urge the CoS to maintain a low profile while making sure that all the agencies of Government, departments, and functionaries of Government carry out and implement the precise agenda of the President regarding economic and financial matters.
Nigerian economic landscape is an area I have written so much about in the past including offering solutions as I perceived them to work in cognizance of the peculiarity of the Nigerian situation. Just recently at the start of the year 2020 and in reviewing the National Budget, I had indicated that it will be very tough for the country to grow in 2020. My position was based on the grossly inadequate estimates of the 2020 National Budget and visible lack of revenue to support the implementation of even the inadequately posted Budget provisions. No one ever envisaged that the entire planet will be confronted with unprecedented economic problems as posed by the current COVID-19 pandemic. Equally, no one knows precisely the extent of damages this pandemic will cause or that it has caused globally. Nigeria is not exempted from this problem and it is possible that this issue may take so much attention from the CoS against other important priority agenda as enumerated above. One hopes that will never happen otherwise, it will be a shadow chasing exercise or a mirage for him as CoS. Again, my advice is that he should not allow issues relating to the National Economic challenges weigh him down or burden him. There are several competent folks in Government to handle that department.
Prior to this current pandemic anyway, I had predicted that Nigeria will commence series of economic austerity measures sometime during this financial year. The lack of creativity in expanding the budgets and locating cognate funds and revenue sources to implement the budget is just too nauseating. It was evident that there was no way Nigeria will escape landing in economic austerity measures and be bedeviled with poor growth rate at year-end. It was clear that several States will be unable to fund their operations due to shortfalls in revenue allocation from the Federal Government. It was projected and I presented evidence that the foreign exchange market will witness unavoidable turbulence during the year due to lack of revenue and perceived uncertainty with the global Oil market pricing. These were the pre-existing conditions confronting the Nigerian economy even before the pandemic broke out globally and created this scary situation that brought the global economy to a halt that has never been witnessed or known in history. Now with the inevitability of global recession reemerging, and real big economic and financial crises looming across the board, this has begun to manifest at the States level in Nigeria as we speak.
Several States in Nigeria are already in shock and panicky modes. Governors are struggling to announce cuts in budgets and that will be followed by series of Economic Austerity measures at the State and Local Government levels. This will obviously ricochet to the Federal Government level as reality will dawn very soon. Unfortunately, this is not where we need to be at these very difficult times. It is actually a time to come out of the box and get exceedingly creative to reposition and rechanneled priority and resources and not to cut budgets and create panicky austerity measures. Already, the Naira depreciation is continuing unabated for a country that depends on massive importation of both consumer and capital goods and expends over twice the size of its annual budgets importing foods and capital goods it can adequately produce. We already knew that Naira will see unstoppable devaluation in 2020 anyway despite the Economic predicament presented by the COVID -19 pandemic. We do not need a soothsayer to know this for fact due to policy somersault and fire brigade approach to the management of the FX Market in Nigeria. The recent reports from the Central Bank of Nigeria should signal a red flag for a National Assembly investigation into the operations of the Foreign Exchange market in Nigeria. There is no reason to record a whopping over $3.0Billion dollars depletion of the Foreign Reserves in the name of saving the Naira from devaluation which is seeing freefall devaluation anyway despite all these intervention funds and moreover, who is importing what products or goods at this time when the entire global trade has ground to almost complete halt. That topic was part of my earlier publication hence no need to return to it again.
To be honest, and in fairness, there is absolutely nothing the new CoS can do about this problem. Like I have stated before, with or without the COVID-19 problems, Nigeria’s economy was destined to face some critical structural challenges in the periods 2020 to 2022 due to the technically defective national budget structure and lack of creative revenue avenues. Our budget every year is simply a copy and paste kind of document, it is wonder if any empirical or scientific inputs actually go into the budget preparation to allow for fluidity and to capture economic reality. It was inevitable since the right panacea and measures were never adopted. This is why I will not want the new CoS to burden himself attempting to help the President figure out how to come out of this maze. There are several other important agendas that could again ricochet to alleviate and solve some of these economic problems anyway, such as the focus on human capital development and the development of right infrastructure-based institutions in Nigeria. I, therefore, recommend that the new CoS does not attempt to allow the worries of the economic downside to belabor him or suppresses his ability to confront other important Agenda. He should tacitly recuse himself from the direct economic agenda, which is in itself a huge Agenda for the new CoS while again not neglecting the importance of assisting the President with his economic agenda on the overall basis. I may seem to be sounding convalesces here but I believe I am not misunderstood to mean that attention on the economic spheres at this time is unnecessary or not important, it is, glaringly!
5. Finally, the last Agenda that the new CoS should focus on is the need to help the President with the right implementation of Government strategies on infrastructure deficit programs in power and energy, agriculture, education and now in the medical fields and other vital areas where Nigeria currently needs so much attention devoted to on how to increase the infrastructure deliverance strategies across the country. This was a problem that existed before the Covid-19 pandemic and it appears that the President’s body language was suggesting aggressive strategies to bridge this infrastructure deficit gaps in the country. The most potent way to navigate that is to drive and attract the domestic and foreign private investment capacity to that sector. The dwindling financial fortunes of the Government will not create the adequate opportunities in this sector; hence the private sector groups must be prodded and attracted to fill in this huge deficit investment gaps. Professor Gambari is not a partisan Politician hence he knows the full import of this strategy and why the President needs to succeed in this renewed efforts to improve the infrastructure landscape in Nigeria in all ramifications.
We need not get paranoid about how to raise the funds and cognate investment that will enable the Government to deliver on the massive need to invest in infrastructure development all over the country. The fact that Nigeria currently leads the world in the poorest poverty index is pathologically sad in a country so blessed with both human capital and natural resources. It is unacceptable and I always say that I am personally intrigued and uncertain how typical Politicians in Nigeria are able to find sleep at night with this kind of pathetic poverty reigning supreme in Nigeria. With these current global economic challenges, it is being predicted that an additional 15 to 20 million Nigerians may drift into abject poverty in the next two years if necessary economic solutions are not put in place. Right now such infrastructural projects are needed to be dispensed and unleashed in Nigeria to solve several economic problems in the first place and on a long term basis.
I have extensively discussed the strategies to generate requisite funding for such massive infrastructural investment and development across the country without resorting to 100% debt capital in my recent past publications. There is no need to revisit that here. It is still in the public domain for readership. Nigeria is eminently resourced and blessed to fund serious infrastructure projects if the issues of dealing with reduction in mismanagement and corruption are effectively enhanced. Coupled with strong economic strategies and models that will deliver cognate income and revenue generations that will assist embark on such ventures. Nigeria’s infrastructures deficit in the medium term is currently ranked in the region of 235% deficits over and above the current annual GDP figure. That ultimately translates to appropriately $1.3 trillion dollars in core investment in infrastructure projects in the medium term period. This writer believes Nigeria can generate that kind of capital internally through judicious management of resources and creation of new wealth and new sources of revenue. Someone that truly understands that techno-logical perspective of creating such wealth is also Prof. Ibrahim Gambari. He knows it and he surely knows how to drive it to assist the President.
As we witness the unparalleled global economic challenges presented by the COVID-19, we may be equally astonished and wondering where the financial palliatives and stimulus funds being bankrolled by the Developed World to sustain their economies are coming from. US alone may end up spending over $6 Trillion to build strong pillars to arrest the drifts in its economy, ditto for China, Japan and several other advanced economies. The funding for these spending is not necessarily emanating or generated from taxation or special levies on their citizens but from other creative revenue sources which we need to imbibe and adopt in Nigeria. Again, I am convinced that someone of Prof. Gambari’s prodigy and experience shall be valuable in helping the President in this direction.
In the final analysis, the choice of Prof. Ibrahim Gambari whom most people considered to be over qualified for the position of the CoS may as well be a huge blessing for this President that is yearning to spend the rest of his tenure to deliver on his political campaign promises to Nigerians. The new CoS is equally considered the right fit at this time to assist shape the direction of the President’s thinking and programs as we navigate these tough and challenging times ahead as a country. It is therefore instructive for the Political Scientist Professor, Economist, International diplomat of repute, an experienced negotiator, and alloyed administrative juggernaut and on top of it all, a cognate loyalist to help direct the direction of affairs in the Presidency in the next three difficult years ahead for Nigeria.
Dr. Kazeem Bello is based in the United States of America
