Hotel development in Nigeria, others hits 50,000 rooms

The findings of this year’s Hotel Chain Development Pipeline Survey, produced by W Hospitality Group, a vital strategic advisor to the Africa Hotel Investment Forum (AHIF) , show a surge in hotel development in Africa, with a jump in the development pipeline to 270 hotels and nearly 50,000 rooms, and with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) exceeding North Africa by almost 70%.

For Nigeria, the top reach of 51 new hotels with a total capacity of 8,563 rooms was attained.

The data reveal a modest recovery in North Africa and increasing confidence in SSA – only two years ago the number of rooms in the North African pipeline was the same as that in sub-Saharan Africa. This year’s survey is based on contributions from 37 international hotel chains with 80 brands between them.

TABLE 1

Regional Summary

2011

Hotels     – North Africa – 75

– Sub-Saharan Africa – 76

– TOTAL – 151

Rooms   – North Africa – 17,038

– Sub-Saharan Africa – 13,700

– TOTAL – 30,738

2012

Hotels – North Africa – 77

– Sub-Saharan Africa – 100

– TOTAL – 177

Rooms   – North Africa – 17,217

– Sub-Saharan Africa – 17,109

– TOTAL – 34,326

2013

Hotels – North Africa – 73

– Sub-Saharan Africa – 115

– TOTAL – 188

Rooms   – North Africa – 18,065

– Sub-Saharan Africa – 18,191

– TOTAL 36,256

2014

Hotels – North Africa – 73

– Sub-Saharan Africa – 142

– TOTAL – 215

Rooms   – North Africa – 16,449

– Sub-Saharan Africa – 23,283

– TOTAL 39,732

2015

Hotels – North Africa – 79

– Sub-Saharan Africa – 191

– TOTAL – 279

Rooms   – North Africa – 18,565

– Sub-Saharan Africa – 31,150

– TOTAL – 49,715

The SSA region has far more national markets than North Africa, 49 countries versus five and these have historically been underserved with branded hotels. It’s now time for them to catch up and they are: Mauritania, for example, with no existing branded supply, now has three branded hotels in the development pipeline.

Growth in the pipeline in North Africa has slowed considerably, impacted by unrest and political conflict. For example, Libya, a country which many groups were focusing on just two years ago, has seen no new hotel development deals. Egypt, which has traditionally been a major growth market, lost some projects to delays and cancellations in 2014.

As a sub-region, West Africa has by far the greatest number of rooms in the pipeline, more than double East Africa. This is largely thanks to Nigeria, which became the largest economy on the continent in 2014 after it rebased its GDP figures. It has the largest population and the largest number of urban conurbations in one country, with the exception of South Africa.

As in previous years, Southern Africa continues to lag behind, with fewer rooms in development this year than in Central Africa and with the highest number of countries with no activity at all – five, namely Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland and Zimbabwe.

It is important to distinguish between deals which are still in the planning stage and those which are becoming reality, with construction started. Table 3, below, shows the proportion of the deals (rooms) which are actually under construction – sub-Saharan Africa has many more signed deals than North Africa, but the latter has 78 per cent of the pipeline rooms on site, compared to 55 per cent in SSA.

TABLE 3

2015 Hotel Chain Development Pipelines in Africa

SSA vs. North Africa by Pipeline Status

Sub-Saharan Africa

Hotels – 191

Rooms Total – 31,150

Rooms Onsite Construction – 17,070 / 55%

North Africa

Hotels – 79

Rooms Total – 18,565

Rooms Onsite Construction – 14,428 / 78%

Looking at individual countries, Nigeria has by far the most rooms in the chains’ development pipelines, over 8,500 rooms in 51 planned new hotels. That is more than the entire pipeline in Central Africa and East Africa combined! Table 4 shows the top ten pipeline countries by number of rooms:

TABLE 4

2015 Hotel Chain Development Pipelines in Africa

Top 10 Countries by Number of Rooms

1 – Nigeria

Hotels – 51

Rooms – 8,563

Average Size – 168

2 – Egypt

Hotels – 18

Rooms – 6,440

Average Size – 358

3 – Morocco

Hotels – 31

Rooms – 5,474

Average Size – 177

4 – Algeria

Hotels – 13

Rooms – 2,749

Average Size – 211

5 – Tunisia

Hotels – 12

Rooms – 2,444

Average Size – 204

6 – South Africa

Hotels – 13

Rooms – 1,662

Average Size – 128

7 – Kenya

Hotels – 8

Rooms – 1,510

Average Size – 189

8 – Libya

Hotels – 5

Rooms – 1,458

Average Size – 292

9 – Ghana

Hotels – 8

Rooms – 1,399

Average Size – 175

10 – Uganda

Hotels – 9

Rooms – 1,397

Average Size – 155

In 2015, all the countries in the top 10 (with the exception of Algeria and Libya) saw an increase in their pipeline from the previous year. Kenya and Uganda saw the largest increases, at over 100 per cent and 90 per cent respectively, albeit from a much smaller base than the four leading nations. Despite the continued difficulties that the country has faced, Egypt recorded a substantial 37 per cent increase in its pipeline, indicative of returning confidence.

Nigeria, Egypt and Morocco have occupied the top three slots since 2011. Whilst Nigeria has 33 per cent more rooms than second-placed Egypt, the average size of each planned hotel in Nigeria is less than half that in Egypt. New hotels in North Africa generally, and particularly in Egypt, are of a much larger size.

Egypt also has the highest “performing” pipeline in Africa, with almost 5,500 rooms under construction, compared to “only” 3,400 in Nigeria. Table 5 analyses the top 10 countries with the highest proportion of planned hotels under construction.

TABLE 5

Top 10 Countries by Pipeline Status

Onsite Construction

1 – Egypt

Hotels – 18

Rooms Total – 6,440

Rooms Onsite Construction – 5,480 / 85%

Rank Deals 2↑

2 – Morocco

Hotels – 31

Rooms Total – 5,474

Rooms Onsite Construction – 3,795 / 69%

Rank Deals 3↑

3 – Nigeria

Hotels – 51

Rooms total – 8,563

Rooms Onsite Construction – 3,369 / 39%

Rank Deals 1↓

4 – Algeria

Hotels – 13

Rooms Total – 2,749

Rooms onsite Construction – 2,494 / 91%

Rank deals 4↔

5 – Tunisia

Hotels – 12

Rooms Total – 2,444

Rooms Onsite Construction – 1,501 / 61%

Rank Deals 5↔

6 – South Africa

Hotels – 13

Rooms Total – 1,662

Rooms Onsite Construction – 1,196 / 72%

Rank deals 6↔

7 – Libya

hotels – 5

Rooms Total – 1,458

Rooms onsite Construction – 1,158 / 79%

Rank deals 8↑

8 – Ethiopia

Hotels – 8

Rooms Total – 1,326

Rooms Onsite Construction – 1,117 / 84%

Rank Deals -↑

9 – Kenya

Hotels – 8

Rooms Total – 1,510

Rooms onsite Construction – 1,050 / 70%

Rank deals 7↓

10 – Rwanda

Hotels – 7

Rooms Total – 1,351

Rooms Onsite Construction – 953 / 71%

Rank Deals -↑

Trevor Ward, Managing Director, W Hospitality Group, said: “What we’re seeing now is growing confidence right across Africa, including a recognition that there are opportunities beyond North Africa which can, and must, be exploited. Several of the international hotel chains have established local development offices, the newest being Hyatt in Nairobi, and the chains are more serious than ever about building their businesses below the equator.”

Matthew Weihs, Managing Director, Bench Events, the organiser of the Africa Hotel Investment Forum (AHIF), which attracts all the major international hotel investors in Africa, where this report will be discussed in detail, concluded: “Africa is becoming an increasingly attractive place to do business. There is much less conflict and political unrest than a decade ago; continent-wide economic growth is around5% and that is forecast to continue, national economies are becoming less reliant on natural resources and many countries have taken steps to become more business friendly and to attract international investment. As we can see from this fascinating report, those strategies are paying off handsomely.”

AHIF is the preeminent gathering of international investors in hotels in Africa. It takes place in Addis Ababa on Sept 30 – October 1, 2015.

The W Hospitality Group, a founding member of Hotel Partners Africa, specialises in the provision of advisory services to the hotel, tourism and leisure industries, providing a full range of services to clients who have investments in the sector, or who are looking to enter them through development, acquisition or other means.

In sub-Saharan Africa W Hospitality Group is regarded as the market leader due to the market and financial expertise of its staff, its worldwide knowledge, and its commitment to its clients. In Africa, W Hospitality Group has to date worked in 36 countries on the continent, from its Lagos and Addis Ababa offices.