Nigerian government must not take this alert for granted By Emeka Asinugo
When a multi-national country like Nigeria is constantly under siege or threat of siege, the value of meaningful intelligence, no matter how raw or unverified it is, should never be underestimated. Nigeria has, for far too long, paid a heavy price for ignoring early warnings about potential terrorist attacks. It is in this context that a recent intelligence alert, reportedly codenamed Project SENTINEL, issued on 26 October 2025, is another red flag the authorities must treat with utmost seriousness. It warns of planned terrorist attacks during this 2025 Christmas period across several local government areas of Plateau State, specifically Mangu, Barkin Ladi, Bokkos, and Bassa. According to the report, the attackers are mobilizing from neighbouring Bauchi, Kaduna, and Nasarawa States, with identified forest depots where weapons are being stored and attackers are being harboured.
Whether or not this intelligence turns out to be accurate is beside the point. Nigeria’s recent history has shown that most large-scale atrocities were preceded by warnings that were either ignored or dismissed as false alarms. From the abduction of the Chibok schoolgirls in 2014 to the repeated massacres in Benue, Plateau, and Southern Kaduna, the security agencies often had prior information but failed to act swiftly or decisively. The consequences were devastating: thousands of lives were lost, communities were razed, and the entire country was haunted by the images of unarmed citizens being slaughtered in cold blood even in their ancestral homes.
In this latest alert, the threat bears the familiar marks of Nigeria’s evolving insecurity: multiple attack teams, cross-border movement, ethnic and religious undertones, and the use of forests as staging grounds. The intelligence describes possible “loading points” in the forests of Keana, Rukuba, Jengre, and Gindiri. These are locations that have in the past served as hideouts for armed groups. They are not new danger zones. For more than a decade, the Middle Belt has been a hotbed of communal and terrorist violence. Villages in Barkin Ladi and Bokkos have been attacked repeatedly, often with little or no response from security forces until the damage is already done.
Government cannot afford to treat such a detailed warning with its usual bureaucratic complacency. Security agencies, especially the military, police, and air force, must be deployed in significant numbers across the named LGAs. Surveillance and patrols must intensify around the forests and border areas linking Plateau with Bauchi, Kaduna, and Nasarawa. If nothing happens, then we can be thankful. But if the alert is ignored and tragedy strikes, the government will have no excuse for failing in its primary duty to protect the lives and properties of Nigerian citizens. Prevention will always be cheaper and more humane than condolence.
Nigerians have become too familiar with the ritual of mass killings followed by official statements promising investigations that lead to nowhere. After every tragedy, the same cycle repeats itself culminating in condemnation, outrage, security meetings, and then, silence. Meanwhile, the perpetrators regroup, rearm, and strike again and again leaving a trail of blood and mourning behind. The intelligence community must therefore be empowered not only to collect information but to act upon it. That means adequate funding, inter-agency coordination, and a clear chain of accountability. When warnings like this surface, the question should not be who leaked it, but how to verify and neutralize the threat before it matures.
The federal government should also understand the psychological dimension of this conflict. The alert itself acknowledges that some groups are exploiting the violence for propaganda, spreading claims of “Christian genocide” or ethnic cleansing to stir public anger and international condemnation. While disinformation is indeed a weapon of war, the best way to disarm it is through visible, decisive action. If people see their government proactively defending them, they will have less reason to believe that Abuja is indifferent or biased. But inaction only deepens distrust and fuels the dangerous narrative that certain regions or religions are deliberately being left to perish.
At the end of the day, this is not just a Plateau problem. It is a Nigerian problem. Violence in one part of the country invariably spills into others. The alert itself warns that terrorist expansion could spread into the South-West if unchecked. The North Central region has already become a corridor for weapons smuggling and extremist movement. Every attack weakens national cohesion and pushes communities further apart. It is therefore in the interest of every Nigerian, regardless of tribe, faith, or political leaning that the government clamps down decisively on these threats.
However, security is not only about guns and uniforms. It is also about governance, justice, and political will. The root causes of Nigeria’s conflicts which fundamentally are land disputes, poverty, unemployment, and weak law enforcement remain largely unresolved. Yet, even within this complexity, there is no justification for mindless killings. No grievance legitimizes the slaughter of innocent men, women, and children. The states mentioned in the alert, Plateau, Bauchi, Nasarawa, and Kaduna, each has representatives in the National Assembly. Their senators and members of the House of Representatives must raise these concerns forcefully on the floor of the legislature. They must demand emergency sessions, oversight visits, and tangible interventions, not empty speeches.
For too long, state and federal lawmakers have acted as if insecurity is someone else’s problem. But they represent real people who are dying in real numbers. They cannot continue to collect salaries and allowances while their constituencies burn. If, as some have made public, sections of the North feel so abandoned that they have begun to nurse possible secessionist tendencies, a kind of “Arewexit,” as we had Brexit in the UK some years back, then the government should realize that it is time to call for a referendum so that the citizens can decide for themselves what they actually want to do with Britain’s Nigeria. A responsible government should be able to allow citizens decide their future and that of their children. The unity of Nigeria is not being tested by “foreign enemies” but by the mindless spilling of the blood of its own citizens, which is always done with impunity.
The federal government must see it as a primary duty to pursue and bring to book the financiers and sponsors of these attacks, both within and outside the country. Terrorism is sustained not only by ideology but by money. Someone buys the weapons, fuels the vehicles, pays the informants, and shelters the fighters. Those people must be identified, arrested, and prosecuted, no matter their political or religious standing. Nigeria cannot defeat terrorism while protecting its financiers. Financial intelligence units, banks, and international partners should cooperate in tracing suspicious transfers linked to conflict zones. When sponsors are exposed and punished, it will send a strong message that no one is above the law.
History has shown that ignoring early warnings invites disaster. In January 2024, for example, residents of Mangu raised alarms over strange movements in nearby forests. Weeks later, coordinated attacks left scores dead and thousands displaced. In 2018, despite intelligence reports of planned raids in Barkin Ladi, the attacks still went ahead, claiming more than a hundred lives. Each of those tragedies could have been prevented if authorities had acted promptly. It is this painful pattern of negligence that government must end.
The military should consider deploying aerial reconnaissance and surveillance drones over the identified forests to verify the existence of “depots” and armed gatherings. Joint patrols between states can seal border gaps that terrorists exploit. Police units, civil defense, and community vigilante groups should work under a unified command to prevent miscommunication. But all deployments must respect human rights and avoid inflaming ethnic tensions. The goal is to protect civilians, not to victimize them.
Religious and community leaders must also rise above sectarian lines. Plateau State is home to diverse peoples that include the Berom, Afizere, Anaguta, Fulani, Mwaghavul, and others whose coexistence has been strained by decades of suspicion. They must now become part of the solution by promoting dialogue, sharing intelligence, and discouraging reprisal attacks. Every cycle of vengeance only feeds the very extremists who want Nigeria to collapse.
If, for any reason, however, this alert turns out to be a hoax, no one loses anything by being prepared. But if it is real and ignored, the consequences will once again be counted in human lives and destroyed communities. Government must act now, not with words, but with visible, coordinated security operations across Plateau and its neighboring states. The National Assembly should monitor and demand weekly briefings on the situation. Civil society and the media must continue to hold authorities accountable. Nigeria cannot continue to mourn preventable tragedies. The time has come for the government to prove that the lives of ordinary citizens matter more than political calculations or bureaucratic excuses. Every attack that succeeds despite prior warning is an indictment on the state’s capacity to govern. The alert about possible Christmas attacks is therefore not just a test of intelligence, but a test of leadership. If Nigeria is truly serious about ending terrorism and restoring peace, then this is the moment to demonstrate it. And to start with, government at state and federal levels must not take this alert for granted.
Chief Sir Asinugo, PhD., M.A., KSC writes from the UK
