Talking about this puzzling collapsing world order, some people have genuinely tried to explain it. The causation of the upheaval, its impact and the way forward have begun to emerge. Some of the towering outputs include the remarkable speech recently delivered by Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland. Another impressive effort came from Chimazuru Nnadi-Oforgu’s article: ‘The Age of Empires Is Back, and Nigeria Is Sleeping on the Highway’. There is also Uche Udenka’s ‘The End of American Moral Leadership and the Rise of Middle Power Realism’. There must be many other good works on the subject around the globe.
Really, what has happened is not all about Trump. There has been a long period of buildup, especially inside America. It is however surprising that the first real crack in the global order did not come from the US but from Russia. Certainly, Russia’s military attack on Ukraine in 2022 in complete defiance of the United Nations predates President Trump’s election into his second term of office. President Putin has been bitter and feels violated that NATO dared to fish for allies in what he calls his country’s area of influence. Hence his queer decision that Ukraine cannot join NATO, and his eventual resort to armed aggression against Ukraine to enforce his will.
In doing this, Putin seems to have forgotten that the Soviet Union (now Russia) was the first to meddle into America’s backyard or area of influence, as he would call it, to snatch Cuba into the communist orbit and alliance with Russia way back in the ‘50s and ‘60s. I have sought the opportunity to remind Putin about this privately, in the hope that it would make him mellow or simmer down; stop his war against Ukraine and return to responsible public behaviour, but to no avail. If Putin had remembered this historical event, he could have learnt from President Kennedy’s refusal to reinforce the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba by some Cuban exiles and the CIA elements who helped them. Of course, Kennedy did not want to be seen as a dictator wanting to trample on the rights of Cuba to choose its own friends and alliance partner.
Anyway, the evolving upheaval in the world, now spearheaded by Trump is something that was bound to come given the way things have shaped in the last few decades. The United States has been made to feel like the world’s beast of burden for too long. It has shouldered most of the problems of the world, especially the defense needs of its allies. America carried almost half the budget of world institutions, if not more; UN, WTO, WHO, etc., and contributed the most to the needy through USAID. The US (and UK) also fought to keep our sea lanes free from interlopers. Yet, as soon as it began to appear that China is on its way to overtake the US in economic terms, many people began to laugh at the US and to celebrate its supposed downfall. This is the main thing that puts America in a sore mood and reverse gear. It is true that nations take turns in world leadership or as power centres – Assyria, Egypt, Greek, Rome, Ottoman Empire, Spanish/Portuguese, UK/French and now USA. But given the large size of the USA, with its assorted resources, it should still have a lot of time to stay atop the pack.
As a result of this large size, whenever things are difficult for one part or another of the US, there are other parts to sustain America’s greatness. Which is what the old empires lacked! It might be true that America can no longer produce half the total goods and services of the world as it used to, but it can still take up to 30 to 40 per cent, given its potentials and if it increases its population to 500million, largely by letting in quality immigrants, as well as cutting down the number of its many military bases around the world. Indeed, the slights Americans received over their dwindling economy brought bitterness and consequences. And that is why they elected Trump, the man with the MAGA mantra, to “make America great again”. Of course, Trump is so enthusiastic that he is now overstepping his bounds, with his exploits in Venezuela and intent to annex Greenland. Trump may now be restrained somehow, but forget it, the old order is not coming back.
It is in the nature of the world we live in. A hen may throw in everything she has in caring and protecting its offspring. But this is for a given period of time during which the brood is expected to have learnt to fend for themselves. After that, the fowl may feel free to let go of the weaned chicks. Then it would do anything to keep them at bay and away from itself. Which is comparable to what the US is now doing to the world and its erstwhile allies especially! The task before the world today is not to mourn the old order, but, in the words of Uche Udenka, to replace it with something sturdier, fairer, and more honest. For we need a world where power exists, but legitimacy matters. Where sovereignty is real, not theatrical. Where cooperation is chosen, not coerced. That choice – not American leadership, but collective resolve – will define the next global order. It shouldn’t be the rule of the jungle, where might is right.
The race has already commenced! The drive towards a unipolar world order based on the whim and ambitions of one man, as witnessed in Trump’s fancy ‘Board of Peace’, could backfire and throw the world into chaos. Indeed, Trump’s beloved Putin could play Brutus to Trump’s Caesar, over this matter! “The board is not presented as a temporary mechanism for Gaza, but as a permanent global body tasked with promoting peace and good governance worldwide, implicitly positioning itself as a rival to, or even a replacement for, the United Nations”, wrote Sonnie Ekwowusi, with Trump as chairman and arbiter. On the other hand, a fragmented multipolar system devoid of a strong UN to create order and stability cannot stand. It will degenerate into anarchy. Rather than wait for things to sort themselves out, society should take immediate steps to revamp the UN.
The above ideals will be largely integrated into our next new global order if we do the following:
- Democratise the United Nations, with full legislative powers and function residing with a new UN or World Assembly, which would displace both the UN General Assembly and UNSC, such that every member-nation can partake in the law-making/decision-taking processes of the UN, thereby assuring unlimited political inclusiveness. Indeed, a restructured UNSC should become the in-house committee on security for the new Assembly;
- Power-sharing amongst UN member-nations must be predicated on the national power of each nation, which is a three-dimensional concept resting on the following three axions: (1) population; (2) equality of states principle; and (3) economic power. It shall be ‘the democracy of the third degree’, where the three factors are to be used in determining the number of parliamentary seats assignable to each nation, as detailed in my new book, Towards Effective World Security;
- Decisions in the new Assembly are to be made on democratic principles and as reflected by votes obtained on the floor of the Assembly. Procedural matters can be decided on the simple majority rule while the more difficult matters like compelling a nation on any issue, may require the securing of absolute majority of votes on the floor of the Assembly.
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