A free falling economy and the rest of us By Umoh Joshua

Am I an economic guru? No. Do I see, hear, taste, touch and feel the traumatizing pains of this prevailing economic hemorrhage? Yes. Am I the only one blown by this ill wind? No. Does it take economic expertise to be affected by the present economic misfortunes? No. Does it take economic expertise to marshal out a remedial roadmap out of the present economic quagmire? Maybe. As a country, can we survive these strangulating times? Yes, we can. Can we come out strong? Yes, we can. Are we taking steps? Yes, we are. Are we urgently doing enough? No, we aren’t. Here stays my concern. It is a concern for our collective survival in the face of this stomach-biting hunger, this teeth-gnashing anguish and this life-threatening hardship. It is a concern for the rest of us.

How Bad? Facts and Figures

Nigeria is in recession! To say the country is ‘technically’ in recession, as Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun would prefer us to say, is to be economical with statistical and evidential realities. Latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that Nigeria’s economy has contracted from above $500 in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) value recorded before May 29, 2015, to about $296, bringing it back from the largest African economy then, to the third largest economy in Africa trailing behind South Africa and Egypt. Make no mistake about it, there is nothing handsome (but everything gruesome) for a country by far the largest in Africa to fumble, stumble and crumble down to the third spot – so, expect no bronze medal. Unlike that of Rio 2016 Olympics, this is no feat but a misfit for Nigeria.
You need to hear this from a renowned economic expert (the long-bearded regular economic analyst on Channels TV), the Chief Executive of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Bismarck Rewane. “We are estimating an increase in the inflation rate to 17.4% in the month of July from 16.5% in June. If our estimate is accurate, this would be the highest rate in 11 years. More worrisome is the fact that Nigeria’s per capita income has dropped from $2400 to $1300, as well as losing the position of top oil producer in Africa to Angola.
“Also, there is a threatening decline in power generation and output and most disturbing is the fact that from a 7.8% GDP growth in 2013/2014, the country is in recession at negative – 0.4% in the first quarter of 2016, while citizens are stuck at home as foreign airlines flee away from Nigeria.”
The simple truth is this: Recession is the opposite of progression. Any upward movement of the GDP growth index especially above point 0 is progression, any downward movement especially below the GDP growth index of 0 is recession. Short and simple. At negative -0.4, there is nothing technical about our GDP growth index. So, it is time we excused the falsely comforting adverb “technically” and call the dog by its name. Proper identification of a problem is the first step to solving the problem. Economic pundits are even anticipating worse data as the comprehensive economic statistics for second quarter and for July 2016 are still being awaited from the World Bank and the IMF.

Real Impact on the Rest of Us

Now, leave the statistics. How is the economy affecting Nigerians in real life, in real time? It affects the high and low, the haves and the have-nots in our society. From the large-scale business tycoons, the multi-nationals, the cross-continental import and export dealers, the manufacturers, the whole-sellers, the retailer, the families in Nigerian villages and cities, the banana and groundnut hawkers on the street, to even the beggars at Ibom plaza; the hardship is severe.
Yes, it affects the haves. For instance, the Bloomberg Billionaires reported that due to slump in oil price, naira devaluation and the general downturn in the capital market, Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, in February 2016, lost half of his wealth ($12.2bn). ‘Iya mmi’!
To the have-nots and the average Nigerians, the growing hardship, particularly in the last one year, is loud and clear. As I was doing this piece, a friend of mine domiciled in same part of Eket metropolitan city of Akwa Ibom state alerted of procuring a single cup of garri for N100. ‘Ns’uto nkpo’! Bic biro has now gone from N20 to N40. A sachet of Nutri-C has gone from N20 to N40. Higher Education notebook hitherto N80, is now N200. A liter of fuel is now N145, just as the kiosk in my neighborhood gives out a litre of kerosene at N250. A cup of rice is now N100, while a bag of the same goes for N18, 000. All of these happen in a country where many states still owe workers the N18, 000 minimum wage. How on earth is survival possible? How does a typical civil servant, husband of one wife, father of five children and guardian of a few dependent extended family members, buy food and clothing, pay rent, fees, fares, bills, tariffs (including the ones paid in exchange for either partial lighting or total darkness)? This is not technically anything. It is regrettably lugubrious. It is economically suicidal, to say the least.

Is the Problem Global or Nigerian? Historic or Present?

But, is the present economic crash a Nigerian problem? The answer is No. Did the problem start with the present administration? Again, the answer is No. As even the immediate past Minister of Finance, the revered Ngozi Okonjo-Iwela has said, the problem has its history in the past administration(s) which somehow stimulated an appreciable level of national wealth but lacked the willpower to commensurately save for the rainy day. It is also an inherited problem in the sense that if Nigeria in the past had taken the issue of diversification of the economy beyond the stratum of campaign rhetoric or symposium rhapsodies, by now we would have found succor in alternative revenue sources, like several other oil producing nations.
Does it make leadership sense for the President Muhammadu Buhari led administration to continue playing the blame game, over fourteen months after being installed? No. Accepting responsibility is the first commitment of a responsible and responsive Government. After all, a large chunk of the collapse occured under President Buhari’s watch. It is under his very watch that the statistics highlighted earlier flipped in the far negative.
President Goodluck Jonathan failed to secure his second term bid, chiefly because the then opposition party cashed in on the frustration Nigerians had felt with Jonathan’s Government and promised to change everything wrong therewith. They pledged to bequeath to Nigerians a country where lives would be safer, foods would be cheaper, electricity supply would be better, fuel would be more affordable, foreign exchange would be more accessible and corruption would be banished. In a piece I then tagged “Messiah Buhari’s Second Coming and the Expectations Thereof”, I had adumbrated the most basic expectations of Nigerians of the new Government and prognosticated how impatient the people could be should such expectations be cut off or perceived to be so cut off. Today, the general mood bespeaks of a much more manifestly severe frustration than that experienced in the Jonathanian days. You hear things like: If GMB can just return the prices of things (foods, fares, fees, fuel, foreign exchange, et al) to what he met on May 29, 2015; we would forever celebrate him and stop asking for any further change. Hmm!
The problem is multi-dimensional. There has been large-scale drop in global demand for petroleum due largely to appropriation and utilization of alternative energy sources by some countries, significantly forcing down the price of crude in the international market. There has been Nigeria’s continuous over-dependence on oil at a time many other oil producing countries are stabilizing their economies with alternative foreign earnings. There has been a rebirth of militancy and its accompanying bombing of oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta. There has been yet no solid, unified national policy framework to urgently stabilize the nation’s economy. There has been conflicting signals from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Budget and National Planning, and even the Presidency, creating market uncertainty. Speaking on conflicting signals, Bismarck Rewane said “Whenever policy statements conflict with policy signals, the uncertainty premium increases. The naira has since been a victim of mixed signals, losing 60% of its value. With the much expected inflow of dollars yet to materialize, the impact of weak naira on prices, output, investment and unemployment remains profound”.
While this Government is making effort at solving the current economic imbroglio, there seems to be very little or no sense and sign of urgency. The economy of Nigeria is sick. Nigeria is sick. Very sick. Bed-ridden and gasping for breath. This is no time to abandon Patient Nigeria in some out-patient wing of the hospital, to ask her to go through all regular hospital protocols, to bore her with narratives of how the previous Hospital Management Board should be blamed for the prevailing darkness in the hospital, while the medical laboratory scientists are on strike, the nurses and doctors are at war with themselves and the Chief Medical Director is luxuriously flying from one foreign clinic to another.
The delay and dilly-dallying in the naming cum ratification of ministers and in the preparation and passage of the 2016 Budget, can be avoided here and now. Desperate situations call for desperate solutions. What then can be done differently?

How Do We Get Out From Here?

Like Bolade Agbola, Executive Director, Cash-craft Asset Management Limited, reasoned, pushing an economy to the path of growth from recession is like war. The two strategic weapons for victory are a clear roadmap or plan and a leadership readiness to determinedly and sacrificially implement the plan. Like smart nations do in times like this, let the Federal Government convene an emergency economic submit involving Government representatives, the CBN, economic experts, captains of industries, the private sector economy players, et al, to seek a unified national roadmap out of the present morass we find ourselves. If there is a unified national economic recovery plan with implementation machinery set in motion, if there is a coordinating Ministry of the economy, and if there is relative peace and security in the country; the trouble of market uncertainty would have been almost completely solved.
On the issue of dwindling petroleum production occasioned by the resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta, methinks a quick shifting of grounds by both the Federal Government and the agitators via the instrumentality of dialogue, is possible and necessary. Some of the demands highlighted by the agitating group(s) are reasonable and quite negotiable. But for me, the boys must be told that the continued decimation of the oil structure and infrastructure (the region’s only bargaining currency in the Nigerian project) in the name of driving home their demands, is a great disservice not only to the country but to the region they claim to be fighting for.
Finally, rather than getting our eyes perpetually fixed on the Government for solutions, there is a dimension of the solutions that rests in the domain of the rest of us. Since the last straw that broke the camel’s back was the steep slack in the global and national oil markets, the fulcrums upon which about 80% of the Nigerian economy had rested, there is need for attitudinal re-adjustment if we all must survive in a post-oil Nigerian economy. As oil can no longer oil our economy, it is time we returned to soil. Together, we can make Nigeria’s agriculture great again. We must learn to discourage habits that are further depleting the value of our currency to the advantage of foreign economies. How?

As a celebrity enriched by Nigerians’ naira, you don’t need to celebrate your wedding, honeymoon and birthdays overseas, but in Nigeria. As a politician enriched by Nigeria’s naira, you don’t need to own estates and industries abroad, but in Nigeria. As an investor, think of the possibility of a Nigerian Microsoft, Apples, Infinix, Coca-Cola, ExxonMobil, Toyota, and DSTV. As Nigerian sports fans, enthusiasts or sponsors, the rest of us need to keep a part of that money spent on/for Manchester, Liverpool, Chelsea and Barca with Enyimba, Kano Pillars, Warri Wolves and Akwa United. For leisure and holidaying, the rest of us need to prefer our homes, our village family compounds, Obudu Cattle Ranch, Gurara Falls, Yankari Games Reserve, Oguta Lake, Mambilla Platueau and Ibom Meridien Hotel to locations in Dubai, Paris, and London. The rest of us need to discipline our craze for foreign goods/services and buy more of the made-in-Nigeria clothing, cars, books, jewelries, furniture and even chewing sticks. Much more than ever before, we have got to think and look inwards. It is a clarion call. And it is a call for the rest of us!

Joshua writes from Uyo. Email:[email protected]