In the final weeks before last Saturday’s governorship elections in Osun State, Ademola Adeleke’s time in Government House Oshogbo, seemed to be up. The omens were dark, the odds seemed impossible.
The Presidential Villa was closed to him; the man he defeated in 2022 to become governor, Gboyega Oyetola, had made sure of that. Now the powerful minister in charge of the newly minted Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy in the government of his political mentor, President Bola Tinubu, Oyetola, worked hard to stop Adeleke from accessing the crucial advantage that many other non-APC governors had successfully sought in a political space completely dominated by the ruling party: the goodwill and protection of the Presidency.
Desperate to survive, Adeleke declared his eternal love and respect for Tinubu and signified his desire to join APC. But he was rejected, derided and told to stay out and get used to the reality of his inevitable loss. Iyiola Omisore, a former deputy governor of the state and prominent member of APC was scathing in his reaction to Adeleke’s moves: “I have not seen a situation where a government is struggling to join another party. If your party is strong and your house is in order, why the pressure to jump ship?”
For the first time, Adeleke, the man who owns the patent on childlike joy in the political space could not find his groove. The happy dancer who did not miss any opportunity, social or serious, to showcase his sheer delight at being alive, lost his rhythm. Suddenly, the many videos of Adeleke on social media, arms working like pistons, pirouetting like a fat ballerina, face lit up with the smile of a thousand suns, seemed like a parody. To many, he was just a clown enjoying his last moments on the stage before succumbing to the obscurity behind the curtain.
But as the world now knows, that didn’t happen. In a remarkable turnaround, Adeleke, somehow, emerged victorious, beating his nearest opponent, APC’s Bola Oyebamiji by 511,067 to 444,815 votes, a difference of 66,252 votes. Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) was third with 17,180 votes. A breakdown of the votes shows that Adeleke got 50.8% of the votes, a solid showing in a race in which 13 other candidates participated. Even Adeleke seemed shocked by the outcome. The expression on his face in a viral video after the results were announced, is one of incredulous euphoria.
The governor’s victory is even more significant given the political landscape of Osun State, a complex theatre of formidable power centres, strong godfathers with national profiles (Aregbesola, Omisore etc), broadly evenly matched senatorial zones with similar voting populations and a history of robust politics and governors who generally last just on term. Osun is a tough terrain by any measure.
So how did the Osun magic happen? There is no shortage of explanations. Success has many fathers; it also does not lack prophets and pundits eager to explain how it came about. In the aftermath of Adeleke’s shocking comeback, so many theories have emerged. Let’s examine a few.
A prominent theory holds that Oyetola has a significant share in APC’s defeat, that his bullying of Omisore and other APC bigwigs with “federal might” led to a loss of enthusiasm in influential quarters. It is widely believed that Omisore, in particular, did not put in his best despite his clout in Ife. Oyetola, according to this thesis, is the main loser of the election and his position as a major power broker has suffered major, possibly irreparable damage as a consequence.
Another theory holds that Adeleke benefitted from the poor showing of ADC’s Salaam who placed a distant third because, apparently, Aregbesola, the party’s strongman in the state, for some reason failed to rise to the occasion. There are also speculations that some prominent APC leaders eyeing a run in 2031 were not enthusiastic about supporting the party’s candidate for a possible eight-year term.
There are other, more sweeping theories. For instance, Otunba Abayomi Odunowo, national president of the Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu Support Group, in a blistering statement issued after the results were announced, declared that “the hunger in the land” and the insensitive and arrogant actions and statements of various influential persons in the APC are major factors that contributed to the ruling party’s failure to unseat Adeleke.
One of the more interesting speculations is that the loss was actually a strategic masterstroke by APC designed to earn a bigger prize: the Osun votes for Tinubu in next January’s presidential election. Apparently, the calculation is that with Adeleke’s already announced public support, the votes of the supporters of the popular governor, along with the votes of the APC and other friendly parties, will be in the bag. It will be interesting to see how this plays out next year.
However, my theory is that Adeleke’s victory is anchored on one factor and all the relevant explanations are just details. To the Osun people, their dancing governor is not just a ridiculous man-child with a penchant for undignified public conduct. The governor is a strong performer whose policies and actions have made a real difference in the lives of his people. For instance, as many Osun people have attested on social media, he has paid off pension arrears left behind by Aregbesola and Oyetola. Unlike his predecessors, Adeleke has also prioritized prompt payment of salaries, including a 13th month. This may not sound like a big deal to sophisticated analysts but in a state in which civil servants are an important socio-political and economic component, it is. Adeleke also has a solid record in road construction and rehabilitation in key towns like Osogbo, Ede, Ilesha, Ife, Iwo and others. The completion of the Oshogbo Ring Road abandoned by Oyetola is an extra feather in Adeleke’s cap. These and other accomplishments, including social programmes of various kinds explain, more than any other reasons, why Osun indigenes stayed up into the early hours to “protect their votes” and how Adeleke danced his way back against seemingly impossible odds.
Nwabuikwu is a member of THISDAY Editorial Board
