Nigeria’s teeming population should be viewed not as a burden but as an enormous economic asset that can and must be harnessed for national economic transformation and sustainable development. With a population already exceeding 200 million and projected to approach 300 million by the end of the century, Nigeria cannot afford to continue responding only to the challenges of today. We must begin implementing policies that anticipate the economic, social and employment challenges of tomorrow. One of Nigeria’s most urgent challenges is unemployment, particularly among young people. This problem affects both graduates and the much larger segment of our population without formal education or marketable technical skills. The fundamental question, therefore, is not simply how government can create jobs, but how government can create the economic conditions under which millions of sustainable jobs can be created by the private sector.
Recognizing the Necessary Economic Reforms
Before addressing job creation, it is important to acknowledge some of the major economic reforms undertaken by the current administration. While these policies have been unpopular in some quarters and have imposed significant hardship on households and businesses, the removal of fuel subsidies and the move toward greater alignment of foreign-exchange rates were, in my view, necessary steps toward restoring some degree of economic stability. The manner and timing of implementation can certainly be debated. However, it is difficult to dispute that maintaining a system in which government could no longer sustainably finance fuel subsidies, while simultaneously maintaining significant distortions in the foreign-exchange market, was becoming increasingly untenable.
The immediate consequences have been severe for millions of Nigerians. Nevertheless, if these reforms are properly managed and followed by policies that stimulate production, investment and employment, Nigeria can ultimately emerge stronger. However, some of the noise in some political quarters about reversing the fuel subsidy removal is not only disingenuous, it is playing to the gallery of public sentiments which betrays a lack of seriousness on their part.
The next phase, therefore, must be about growth, production and job creation. Manufacturing Is Essential: But Manufacturing Alone Is Not Enough
I strongly agree with the position repeatedly expressed by Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote that manufacturing is critical to job creation in Nigeria. Manufacturing creates direct employment in factories, but its impact extends far beyond the factory floor. It creates demand for raw materials, transportation, logistics, warehousing, engineering, maintenance, packaging, distribution, financial services and countless other activities.
However, I would take this argument one step further, because a sustainable manufacturing industry requires demand. A factory can produce thousands of beds, furniture sets, refrigerators, or other locally manufactured products, but production cannot continue indefinitely if consumers lack the purchasing power to buy those products. This is where government policy must become more sophisticated.
Rather than government attempting to employ everyone directly, it should create an economic environment in which production generates employment and employment generates purchasing power, which in turn creates demand for more production. That is the economic cycle Nigeria must deliberately build.
Creating a National Credit Economy
One of the most powerful instruments available to us is a properly regulated consumer and business credit system. In advanced economies, access to responsible credit has played an important role in improving living standards and expanding economic activity. Consumers do not necessarily have to possess the full amount of money required to purchase a house, vehicle, furniture or other durable goods before making the purchase. Properly structured credit allows them to acquire those goods today and pay over time. That creates immediate demand for manufactured products.
The manufacturer receives payment. The factory continues producing. Workers retain their jobs. Suppliers receive orders. Transporters move products. Financial institutions earn interest. Government receives taxes. Employees spend their income elsewhere in the economy. One transaction can therefore generate an economic chain far larger than the original purchase.
The Following Steps Are Essential
- Establish a Unified National Database
Nigeria needs a comprehensive national database integrating biometric information and a unique National Identification Number for every citizen and legally resident person. A reliable identity infrastructure is fundamental to modern financial services, taxation, credit assessment, social programs and economic planning.
- Reform the Credit Bureau System
Credit bureau legislation should be strengthened and modernized, allowing banks and regulated financial institutions to play a greater role in developing a robust credit-information ecosystem, subject to strong government regulatory oversight. Every Nigerian who participates in the formal financial system should gradually develop a verifiable credit history. Good financial behavior should have benefits. Persistent default should have consequences.
- Accelerate the Transition to a Cashless Economy
Nigeria should establish a realistic but ambitious transition toward a predominantly cashless economy within 36 months. This should not be about punishing Nigerians who use cash. It should be about creating a transparent, traceable and efficient financial system that reduces the size of the informal cash economy and makes it easier to assess income, spending, creditworthiness and tax obligations.
- Gradually Restrict Excessive Cash Transactions
Government should consider progressively restricting large cash withdrawals and transactions, with appropriate exemptions for legitimate businesses and special circumstances. Such a policy must, however, be carefully designed so that it does not inadvertently harm small businesses or citizens who remain outside the formal banking system. The objective should be financial inclusion and transparency, not financial exclusion.
- Expand Consumer and Manufacturer Financing
Legislation and regulation should facilitate financing arrangements through which manufacturers can sell locally produced goods to consumers on credit while financial institutions assume and manage the repayment risk. Imagine a Nigerian family being able to purchase locally manufactured furniture, beds, household appliances or other durable goods and pay over 12, 24 or 36 months.
The manufacturer gets paid.
The consumer gets the product.
The bank earns legitimate interest.
The factory continues producing.
Workers remain employed.
And the economy expands.
This is the kind of demand-induced economic growth Nigeria should pursue.
But Credit Requires Culture Change
There is, however, a major obstacle to implementing such a system in Nigeria. Credit cannot function effectively without trust, integrity and a culture of repayment. This brings us directly to what I have identified in my previous writings as the QUAD – four interconnected cultural problems that continue to undermine Nigeria’s development:
- Unethical behavior
- Greed
- Lack of integrity
- Permissiveness—the “Oga Abeg” culture
Too many Nigerians have historically viewed loans and government-supported credit schemes as free money that should not necessarily be repaid. That mindset must change. If a person obtains a bank loan to purchase locally manufactured furniture, a vehicle, equipment or other goods, repayment is not optional. It is a contractual obligation. Failure to repay should affect the individual’s ability to access future financial services.
A properly integrated financial architecture should ensure that a poor credit record follows a borrower across regulated financial institutions and digital financial platforms, subject to due process and appropriate consumer protections. Banks, fintech companies and regulated payment platforms should be able to participate in a credible national credit-information ecosystem. But this cannot be achieved through regulation alone. Nigeria needs a massive national public-awareness campaign on the meaning of credit, contractual obligations and financial responsibility. This is another example of why economic transformation without culture change will remain incomplete.
Rethinking Youth Employment
We cannot continue producing millions of graduates who are jobless while simultaneously importing technicians and skilled workers and leaving young Nigerians without practical skills or employment opportunities. The recent initiative by the Federal Government of Nigeria under the Tinubu/Shettima Administration to reform the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) is commendable. However, the reform of the NYSC will be incomplete if it does not transition NYSC into a National Skills and Apprenticeship Program that will help train and equip our young men and women with skills that will help them earn a living as entrepreneurs or be gainfully employed. Nigeria must also rethink the purpose of education. I would advocate an optional SECOND year of National Service dedicated specifically to skills acquisition and apprenticeship.
Young Nigerians could receive structured training in areas such as:
- Automobile technology and diagnostics
- Electrical installation and maintenance
- Construction management
- Fashion and design
- Collision repair and auto bodywork
- Agriculture and poultry operations
- Welding and fabrication
- Firefighting and emergency services
- Computer hardware and maintenance
- Software development
- App development
- Coding and programming
- Artificial intelligence
- Renewable energy technology
- Plumbing
- Refrigeration and air-conditioning
- Industrial maintenance
The program should be developed in partnership with private-sector employers, manufacturers, technical institutions and professional bodies.
At the end of the program, participants should receive a nationally recognized industry certification demonstrating basic professional competence. This would transform NYSC from merely a national service program into a major national workforce-development and apprenticeship system.
The Automobile Sector Alone Offers Enormous Opportunities
Consider the automobile sector. Nigeria has millions of vehicles on the road, yet many mechanics operate without formal training. At the same time, modern vehicles are increasingly computerized and technologically sophisticated. The mechanic of tomorrow will need to understand electronics, diagnostics, computer systems, sensors and software, not merely engines and mechanical components. A national automotive apprenticeship program could therefore create hundreds of thousands of skilled technicians over time while reducing dependence on foreign expertise.
The same principle applies to virtually every technical occupation. Nigeria does not have a shortage of work. Nigeria has a shortage of properly organized opportunities to convert work into productive employment and enterprise.
Ethanol: Turning Agriculture into Energy and Employment
Another opportunity lies in the development of an ethanol-blended fuel program. Nigeria should seriously consider adopting a national ethanol-blending policy, potentially beginning with a 10 percent blend and progressively evaluating higher blends based on technical and economic feasibility. Such a policy could stimulate demand for cassava, maize and other suitable feedstocks. That demand would create opportunities for farmers, agricultural aggregators, and brokers, processing companies, logistics operators, transporters, equipment suppliers and storage facilities.
The economic impact would therefore extend far beyond the ethanol plant itself. Rather than importing every unit of energy we consume, Nigeria could create a domestic agricultural-energy value chain. With the right policies, this could generate substantial employment over time. The precise number of jobs should, of course, be determined through detailed feasibility studies, but the principle is compelling: energy policy can simultaneously become agricultural policy, industrial policy and employment policy.
Security and Employment
Nigeria’s security crisis also requires a fundamentally different approach. We need to build a much stronger human-intelligence capability at the community level. A large national network of trained intelligence personnel could provide communities, security agencies and government with timely information about criminal activity, kidnapping networks, banditry and terrorism. Such a program would need to be carefully structured, professionally trained, legally regulated and integrated with existing security agencies. It must not become an uncontrolled vigilante system.
The objective should be to create a professional intelligence architecture in which ordinary citizens can become an additional source of reliable information for national security. Security itself can therefore become an area of structured employment while simultaneously strengthening the country’s ability to prevent crime.
Government Should Stop Trying to Be the Entrepreneur
Another important component of Nigeria’s economic transformation should be a gradual reduction in government’s ownership and management of commercial enterprises.
Government’s principal responsibility should be to provide:
- Clear regulations
- Infrastructure
- Security
- Efficient taxation
- Reliable identity systems
- Access to finance
- Fair competition
- Effective institutions
The private sector should increasingly be allowed to serve as the primary engine of production, innovation and employment. Government does not have to own every factory in order to create jobs. It needs to create the enabling environment in which thousands of factories can be profitably established and operated by Nigerians and investors. Thus, I recommend that the Tinubu/Shettima Administration completely privatize the NNPCL refineries and if there no takers decommission them as they have become a source waste, fraud and abuse.
Affordable Housing as an Economic Engine
Housing provides another powerful example of demand-induced growth. Nigeria should develop long-term mortgage financing, initially targeting public servants such as police officers and members of the armed forces, with mortgage payments deducted directly from salaries.
A properly structured 10 to 15-year mortgage scheme could allow workers to acquire homes while creating demand across an enormous range of industries.
A single housing project requires:
- Cement
- Steel
- Doors and windows
- Electrical equipment
- Plumbing materials
- Tiles
- Furniture
- Roofing materials
- Engineering services
- Architects
- Surveyors
- Lawyers
- Transporters
- Laborers
- Security services
Housing finance therefore does much more than provide shelter. It creates an economic ecosystem. Once properly established and proven, such schemes could be expanded to the wider population, with government providing the regulatory framework while private financial institutions and developers provide the capital and expertise.
The Bigger Picture
Nigeria’s unemployment problem cannot be solved by government simply announcing another recruitment exercise. Nor can it be solved by distributing temporary cash transfers indefinitely. We need to create an economic system in which people have the skills to work, businesses have the capacity to produce, consumers have the purchasing power to buy, financial institutions can responsibly provide credit, and borrowers understand that credit must be repaid. That requires simultaneous reforms in education, finance, manufacturing, agriculture, energy, housing, security and culture. Most importantly, it requires a change in mindset. We must move away from the belief that government is responsible for providing everything and toward a system in which government creates the conditions for citizens and businesses to become productive economic participants.
Nigeria’s population should not frighten us, but should inspire us. Two hundred million Nigerians represent two hundred million potential consumers, workers, entrepreneurs, farmers, engineers, technicians, inventors and business owners. If properly educated, properly organized and connected to functioning markets and financial systems, this population can become one of Nigeria’s greatest economic advantages.
But population alone is not an asset. A productive population is an asset. And productivity requires skills, integrity, and access to capital, infrastructure, security and demand. That is why Nigeria’s next economic strategy should not focus exclusively on increasing production. We must also deliberately create the purchasing power that sustains production.
The objective should be simple:
Produce more.
Buy more.
Employ more.
Earn more.
Invest more.
Produce even more.
That is the cycle of demand-induced economic growth that Nigeria must build. And ultimately, none of these reforms will be sustainable without the cultural transformation that underpins them. Economic transformation requires culture change. Without ethics, integrity, responsibility and a rejection of the “Oga Abeg” mentality, even the best economic policies will continue to produce disappointing results.
Nigeria therefore needs not merely a new economic policy.
Nigeria needs a new economic culture.
** Osaikhuiwu, writes from Houston, Texas.
